The present invention discloses a method to determine and predict the progression of dengue infection to dengue with warning signs comprising the steps of: obtaining blood serum from patient with dengue infection; analysing the kynurenine pathway metabolites level in the blood serum; analysing the cytokines level in the blood serum; and comparing the analysed levels of kynurenine pathway metabolites and cytokines to classify the dengue infection into the classes of Dengue without Warning Signs, DWS-, Dengue with Warning Signs, DWS+ or Severe Dengue, SD.